How to Worry about AI and Job Prospects: Facts and Fiction
It’s not easy to keep up with the articles, discussions, opinions, even a papal encyclical on the uses and misuses of artificial intelligence (AI), by which most people mean large language models (LLMs), although there are many other forms of AI. I don’t have much personal experience with AI, although I’m intrigued by how some of my clients, colleagues, and friends find it useful.
I believe that right now AI is broadly overhyped as both promise and threat for the future, specifically as it applies to careers and work environments, which is where I feel qualified to comment. I’ve studied centuries of technological change, and I have some advice for anyone who is concerned about how ongoing AI development will affect their careers and economic futures. I’ll do my best here to separate factual information from overblown predictions.
The pace of change in AI and related technology is rapidly increasing. It’s likely to continue to be rapid for the working life of people currently in the workforce. It’s unlikely, however, that change will happen at a steady pace. Periods of rapid innovation are, by their very nature, relatively brief, followed by periods of consolidation not only of markets but of the technology itself. During the consolidation periods, development and innovation tend to focus on making better and better use of the new tools and methods. During that phase, which is relatively long, subject expertise is at least as important as technological know-how. Expert users become increasingly crucial to development as any technology matures. People with strong mastery of subject matter and methodology will be key players in identifying new ways to use technological tools. They are also most likely to be able to identify best practices to avoid the pitfalls that accompany fast development.
Many current dystopian predictions ignore the fact that commodification comes to most kinds of work sooner or later. Innovation involves humans creating hypotheses, rough drafts, and prototypes as they work to make an idea into reality. Once the basics are established, improvements and refinements follow fairly fast, and the particular field or technology enters a period of expanded use. Commodification comes next, as we have seen over and over. Only a few decades ago, literally anything having to do with computers was considered highly skilled and esoteric work. Now much of that work is entry level, outsourced to countries with lower wages, or automated. Outsourcing to AI is the latest phase, which is why simply knowing how to code no longer means that you can land and keep a highly paid job with a secure future. It’s worth noting that some of the most dystopian predictions about how AI will affect the economy come from the world of software engineering, where for a few years expert coders could command very high salaries. That particular skill is now much less valuable on the job market, and therefore we have seen significant layoffs from coding positions.
At the same time, there is an explosion of new roles in cybersecurity, specifically in protecting infrastructure, such as
power grids
water systems
medical information systems
banking and financial systems
weapons systems.
Not all the new roles require advanced computer science skills, although obviously everyone in the field must understand how the technology is used and the basics of how it works. In addition to security engineers, who are currently in very high demand, there is increased need for project managers, account managers, and forensic accountants, as well as for subject experts who understand how infrastructure systems are used and and can identify key points that need the greatest protection. All these roles also require broad so-called “soft” skills, such as knowledge of psychology and sociology, because the weak links in large systems are as likely to be human factors as technical glitches. In addition to the risks of malice and sabotage, those weak links are vulnerable to carelessness, poor training, boredom, and exhaustion.
There is also a growing ecosystem around the deployment of AI which includes consulting, ethics, public policy, laws and regulations, economics, and educational policy and practice. I expect these fields to grow rather than shrink as AI systems become more complex. Such systems also reach beyond national borders, so international relations and international business roles are likely to grow in both public and private sectors. Again, the skills needed in these careers are wide-ranging, covering all aspects of human life, rather than being limited to AI or computer science.
It is therefore essential to continue both deepening and broadening your knowledge and experience in your own field, keeping an eye on how you can use new technology to your advantage.
Cast a fairly wide net in your professional development and ongoing training, building connections with people in adjacent fields as well as in your own.
Learn about technological history and social change to help you notice trends of adoption or obsolescence in their early stages without jumping to premature conclusions.
Today more than ever, it’s important not to rely on a single set of skills or a single body of knowledge to carry you through your entire career. The half life of knowledge has become very short, so it’s essential not only to keep learning within your field but also to stay tuned to developments in related fields. The people who are already tracking new developments and considering how they will affect what customers, clients, and students want and need will continue to be in high demand.
Predictions about the future are proved wrong more often than they turn out to be accurate. I am especially suspicious about both utopian and dystopian predictions. It’s highly unlikely that we are headed for some dream world in which robots and software do all the work while humans get to relax and make art or pursue knowledge for its own sake. Many people would consider that a horrible fate in any case, because they enjoy making things happen and getting to see the fruits of their labors.
On the other hand, although dystopian tales make good books, movies, and plays, the conflict and social dissatisfaction that make them interesting as fiction are not permanent in real life. People certainly suffer greatly when wealth, power, and social participation are restricted to fewer and fewer people, and of course everyone wants to protect themselves from such suffering.
I don’t believe that humans are going to be “replaced” by AI, any more than humans in general were replaced by the steam engine or the silicon chip. What will happen is that some jobs will disappear and some people will be displaced. New jobs and fields will arise and develop, producing new specialties and new needs for generalists and creating space for people who have been displaced or who are entering the labor force. Markets are always changing. Public policy shifts. There are always crises to respond to. We can prepare to navigate these shifts by staying engaged, continuing to learn, and being active in communities of practice.
In the coming months I’ll be describing in more detail how people at different stages of their careers can take action to protect their jobs and advance their careers now and in the coming decades. Specific tactics will vary depending on whether you are starting out, mid-career, or senior, but the essential stance is to be alert to change while deepening your knowledge and skills.